Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capacity afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
